Flood

Another day, another 3% swing in the broad equity markets. The frightening thing is, these indices (ie, DJIA, S&P500) are is still trading at inflated price/earnings multiples. For example, the Dow Jones Industrials (the Dow 30) are trading at a P/E of 21.25. This is a quite high relative to historical valuations, meaning there is still quite a bit of room for stocks to fall. Just wait until more earnings are reported and I would wager that stocks will take more of a beating.

I follow little of the national mainstream media, but I think that they have failed us in forewarning what we are about to encounter. Fortunately, one does not need to scratch too far beneath the surface to see the true economic state of the US (and world) by reading global sources, or alternative sites, such as this daily read called Naked Capitalism.

I ponder quite a bit what drives people to acquire such degrees of material and monetary wealth. At my point in life, I've found much more freedom and self-satisfaction in having less. The more I gain, the more I lose my identity and autonomy. There was a time that walking into a Maison Blanche in New Orleans was a vastly different experience than walking into Wanamaker's in Philadelphia. Now they are all Macy's (or something of that bland ilk) located in generic suburban shopping malls where you can now buy the same cheaply-made dry goods from coast to coast. We are quickly evolving into a nation of sameness. In my recent journey south on I-5, I cannot tell you how many times I saw the same malls - Target, Best Buy, PetSmart,... - styled in the same architecture. It reminded me of those old video games where the same background plays over and over again.

Oh, and it is quite rainy here. Flooding (see above). I am glad I do not have a basement, as they invariable hold water. What a funny climate this is. I am glad that my 80-year-old home has stood the rigors of time and has been toasty and dry.

Teeth

So I made my pilgrimage to the dentist today for a chipped crown. I was sort of excited to spend some money of my newly established HSA account, but fortunately he sent me on my way and told me that I just needed a cleaning and left my HSA intact. Hmm, mayb I can spend that money on a fixed-gear hub for a bike that I hope to build. My criuser is well past two years old and as a daily driver starting to show its age. Besides, I need something a bit faster to get around town. I should be able to build the whole thing for under a hundred bucks, with mostly reused parts.

Another night at my moonlighting gig watching the rain pour down as my gloves dry on the heater nearby. Having good biking gear is definitely a big plus. I was actually wet from perspiration versus wet from the rain. Oddly enough, most people will need to wait until the weekend to feel the spray of the sea or snow on their face. I am lucky enough to experience getting all rosy-cheeked on a daily basis on my way to work. Today though, the deluge was a bit over the top. And the headwind riding down State Street along the water to Fairhaven was quite intimidating. But I am glad that I do not have an automobile, for today would be a perfect day to drive. And the less I bike, the fatter and more stressed out I get.

At least I have a dry, warm place to go home to. And for that I am lucky.

The picture is taken from the same front window facing suth towards town. I need to ask my housemate how to take pictures more in focus. Oops.

Mondays

I've come to the realization that I need an extra hour of sleep in the winter months. During the summer, I get virtually no sleep. But in the winter, my body changes gears and I find that I am much more lethargic and have difficulty rolling out of bed at 8:00am, then 8:10, then 8:20, and I can usually rationalize one more snooze to take me to 8:30. And besides, after the heinous acts the US conducts or supports around the globe, it's always nice to wake up to the Canadian news from BC.

Not that the Canadians are saints, but overall a much less violent and angry population. I've read where the Canadians own more guns per capita than US residents, but seem to be able to solve their problems without resorting to killing one another.

And as I sit here looking forward to my post-moonlighting-gig Mrs. Fields Ice Cream Sandwich, I glance at the ingredients to see that it contains High Fructose Corn Syrup. Ack! I would not be surprised if things like HFCS wipe out our species in a few generations. I've read it has never been tested by the FDA, but is used in virtually everything (unless you are watchful): soda, bread, candies, ice cream - basically anything with a tinge of sweetening. You do not need to look to far to find out how bad it is for you. And although sucrose is metabolised by every cell in the body, HFCS is only metabolised by the liver. I've read that one's liver (of a diet high in HFCS) has similar fatty deposits not much different than that of an advanced alcoholic.

But fortunately you can go to the HFCS trade group's web site and be comforted by the fact HFCS is a marvel of science and all those granola-crunching liberal scientists just hate freedom and America and eating food that tasted good. I avoid High Fructose Corn Syrup like the plague.

The picture aboive is Cornwall Avenue near the park on a day sunnier than today.

Malls

Today I spent a bit more time reading "The Importance of Being Lazy."

• It turns out that there are sixteen square feet of retail/mall space for every man, woman and child in this country,
  
• We spend seven times the amount of time shopping as we do playing with our children,
  
• 70% of people visit a mall at least once a week, and
• we consume twice as much per capita as we did in 1940.
  

Now I could question many of assertions, but after reading this book, I question why I shop and what type of feeling or sensation this evokes. I am sure there is some physical hormonal action going on from the high created by buying something - satiating a perceived need. Fortunately I don't (think that I) possess that gene. But I do enjoy thrill of making a purchase, and considering that I never use credit cards, my needs, versus wants, tend to be quite rigidly defined.

And although I live a quite frugal life, I do manage to demonstrate my share of frivolity: One could hardly judge my 1975 BMW motorbike purchase as prudent, but I find that I need some mechanical hobby in my life. And in this society of eroding autonomy and identity, it's always nice to have some keepsake from another era, an anchor to my childhood. And I got it for a song anyway.

But to change subjects...
Today I had some friends over to talk about a seed swap that we are holding this month. I don't really know much about this, but that's one reason I wanted to get involved. I need to increase my ability to grow food in a time of potential crisis, and besides, it's always great to warm up your home on a chilly winter day with candles, tea and friends.

The picture was out the south facing window on a rainy Sunday night. I type this as I listen to the mellow jazz sounds rolling off WWOZ from New Orleans (oddly enough, I haven't listened to this station in months), and realize that it is soon Twelfth Night; Carnival will begin in the Crescent City, and beyond. Laissez le bon temps rouler!

Lazing

Although I love work, I too realize the importance of breaking away from it, such as I did last week when I pulled the plug on my computer for a few days in California. Even coming home though, I felt that my company had imploded without me being a mere phone call away, or without monitoring e-mails with regularity.

But everything went smartly in my absence, and I realize two things: The first was that I really am not important as I think I am, and with reasonable planning, I can disappear for a few days. The next was the value of getting away from being dialed in constantly, and the benefit of stepping away from the play to become rejuvenated.

In the grand scheme of things, the short time that I am on this planet is so insignificant that I am amazed how seriously I take many things. I picked up this book at the library yesterday and it made me realize the value in appreciating my time right now that I have to enjoy my life, as well as the fact that I am lucky - in spite of my hectic schedule - that I am really have more free time than I believe. The problem is, working from home I always have no segregation of work versus leisure, so they have a tendency to taint one another.

I need to be more concentrated and compartmentalized in my work, and truly enjoy the free time I so cherish. And as this book points out, I need to pursue activities of passion and vigor, versus just embracing activities that occupy my free time. And I think I do this rather effectively, although working with an emerging company also demands the time that I realized it would. That's all I have to say today. Time to get ready to go to reggae night at the Wild Buffalo.

Depress

Here's an interesting picture showing the rate of unemployment now versus the much compared Great Depression of roughly eighty years ago. I always considered our unemployment numbers to be way understated, as many people are either underemployed or gave up searching for jobs paying market wages. Not only in places like Bellingham, where jobs requiring degreed workers are virtually non-existent, but I've found the same to be true in places like Cincinnati, where the erosion of the manufacturing base led to the elimination of related jobs in everything from IT to HR.

There are many scary facts regarding the specter of the Great Depression (such as: "...in terms of living standards, real per capita personal consumption expenditures did not recover to their 1929 level until 1941, giving American consumers 12 years of living standards lower than they had become used to), but I you don't need to dig too far beneath the surface of the mainstream media to see that strange things are afoot. Anyone seeking their news from Fox, CNN, MSNBC, etc. is in for a big surprise.

And another interesting fact stated in this same blog is that to achieve income parity of the industrialized world with the emerging economies, income levels in the former will predictably decline while the latter's increase as a much greater driving economic force, versus the debt laden, overspent Americans. The productivity increases of the economy over the past decades are coming to fruition in all aspects of overproduction, from houses to vehicles to clothes to degreed job candidates.

I can envision a trend evolving where frugality once again becomes the norm, versus our current overconsumption and waste. And unlike the GD, jobs today continue to be offshored at alarming rates, so there really will really not be much of a rebound and recreation of these jobs in 2011 or beyond. I know many that are taking a defensive position (myself included) to stave off the impending crises through actions like reducing debt.

Some day I will write again about sunsets and beaches and sailing and mountains, but my interest in the economy has been all encompassing. Today was perfect weather where the snow that I woke up to was melted by three p.m. And tomorrow I will wake up with some pain, I'd imagine, as I took a spill on my cruiser after hitting an ice patch on the bike trail. Of course I wiped out in front of a group of eight young kids with their parents. "Don't try this at home," I told them. I think it looked worse than it felt. We'll see.

le Jour de l'An

I am through with my Wells Fargo rant...for now.

The new year brings in rain, sleeping till noon, and reading up on the oil industry from OPEC's perspective. Even OPEC paints a lackluster picture of the future of oil. And supposing their estimated global reserves do exist (which I doubt), there is still a lack of infrastructure and qualified labor to fill our planet's growing demands for the myriad spawns of crude oil.

And add to this the speculators in the market, who drive the tremendous volatility of oil (and other commodity) prices; it will be an exciting ride. Oddly enough, projects for new exploration will be triggered by a sustained price of oil at $60/barrel (or much more - up to $90/b - depending upon who you ask). So oddly enough, the current cheap oil is a detriment to development of future sources, and will consequently create a downstream supply issue. Either way, I do not think we should become too comfy with oil at $40/b. And to digress, one could even surmise that companies were driven to the brink of bankruptcy by the $150/b prices - not to mention consumers, companies and government tightening their belts and reducing overall spending.

On a more positive note, my exciting New Years included biking to a party in Happy Valley for a few hours. I love riding in the rain. Considering that potable water will soon become increasingly precious around the globe, I am grateful for ever drop that falls on me and my surrroundings.

The picture above is from the town square in Arcata, California last week. Looking back, it was a nice relaxing trip. Have a good 2009 everyone.