Sunday, January 18, 2009


Today was a day in Happy Valley helping a friend mind his store. And this means that I get to relax and bask in the sunlight, as the mornings can be quiet. I am so predisposed to always be doing numerous things at one time, that this is one opportunity where I can sit alone and do nothing alone at length. Except for listening to a Sirius Grateful Dead channel where they play a complete show every Sunday at nine. Today's was from Chicago, Illinois - 6/29/76, I believe. Not a bad show: decent recording, no Donna screaming, tight. A good morning.

On an economic note, it looks like we are gearing up for Round Two on the ARM (mortgage) resets. I guess the 3/1 ARMs have already reset, and the 5/1s will reset in 2009 and 2010, creating more default fun in 2010 and 2011. I read where one out of five ARMs are delinquent. Actually, I read it here - a pretty good article from the Washington Post. And an interesting chart above pulled from this blog.

Hard times ahead as we trudge down this path of economic uncertainty, as consumers are literally tapped out with consumer spending driving roughly three quarters of the country's GDP. Furthermore, we've evolved into a service-based economy versus manufacturing, so many (most?) of these service industries will be severely impacted, especially elective consumptive industries, including food service, non--staples, etc. And considering service jobs pay less than trade jobs overall, we're basically in a downward spiral of decreasing earnings and subsequent tax revenues. Fun.

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